Advocacy Group Predicts Higher 2026 COLA For Social Security Amid Rising Costs

Millions of Americans depend on Social Security benefits every month to cover their living costs. These payments are adjusted every year through the Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA), which ensures benefits rise in line with inflation.

For 2026, experts are predicting a slightly higher increase than earlier expected. While this adjustment may sound small, it makes a big difference for seniors, disabled individuals, and low-income families who rely on these checks.

This article explains in detail the 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment forecast, how Social Security decides the increase, who will benefit, and why inflation and government changes could affect your monthly payments.

2026 COLA Forecast: A Slight Increase Expected

The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan advocacy group, recently updated its COLA projection for 2026.

• In May 2025, TSCL predicted a 2.5% increase.
• In June 2025, it raised the estimate to 2.6%.
• By July 2025, the forecast rose again to 2.7%, reflecting higher inflation data.

This means seniors and other beneficiaries could see slightly larger Social Security checks starting in January 2026.

Why the Estimate Changed

Inflation has recently shown signs of rising again, making groceries, medical care, and housing more expensive. Because Cost-of-Living Adjustment is directly tied to inflation, the adjustment increased to reflect these costs.

How Social Security Calculates COLA

The Social Security Administration (SSA) uses the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) to calculate Cost-of-Living Adjustment.

• Measured Timeframe: COLA is based on July, August, and September inflation data each year.
• Purpose: It helps keep Social Security payments in line with rising living costs.
• History: Since 1975, annual COLAs have automatically adjusted benefits without requiring new laws.

Criticism of CPI-W

Many seniors argue that CPI-W does not reflect their real expenses. Retirees often spend more on healthcare and prescription drugs, which rise faster than general inflation. Advocacy groups like TSCL say this results in smaller COLAs than seniors need.

Who Will Receive the 2026 COLA Increase

If the 2.7% projection becomes official in October 2025, it will apply to all Social Security programs, including:

• Retirement Benefits (for workers and spouses)
• Survivor Benefits (for widows, widowers, and dependents)
• Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI)
• Supplemental Security Income (SSI)

This means tens of millions of Americans will see their payments go up in January 2026.

Estimated COLA Impact on Monthly Payments

Here’s a look at how a 2.7% COLA increase might affect average benefits:

Benefit Type	Average Monthly Benefit (2025)	2.7% Increase	Estimated 2026 Payment
Retired Worker	$1,950	+$52	$2,002
Disabled Worker	$1,530	+$41	$1,571
Widow(er)	$1,780	+$48	$1,828
SSI Individual	$943	+$25	$968

Note: These are estimates. Official figures will be announced in October 2025 by the SSA.

Concerns About Political Influence on Inflation Data

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which produces the CPI-W data, has recently faced controversy.

• Former Commissioner Erika McEntarfer was dismissed after weak job numbers.
• President Donald Trump nominated economist E.J. Antoni to replace her.
• Critics fear that inflation numbers could be influenced for political reasons.

If the CPI-W is reported lower than reality, COLA adjustments could shrink, reducing the monthly increases seniors receive.

Economists warn that seniors must watch these changes closely because their financial security depends on accurate inflation reporting.

Why a Higher COLA Doesn’t Always Mean More Security

Even though a 2.7% Cost-of-Living Adjustment sounds like a win, many seniors say it doesn’t match the actual rise in their expenses.

• Medical costs often rise 5%–7% per year.
• Food prices remain volatile, with staples like milk, bread, and meat rising faster than general inflation.
• Housing and rent costs have increased in most U.S. states.

This means that even with the COLA increase, Social Security checks may not fully cover the real cost of living.

What Seniors Should Expect in 2026

• The official COLA announcement will be made by the SSA in October 2025.
• Payments with the new increase will start in January 2026.
• The COLA could still change if inflation data for August and September 2025 shifts.

Seniors, disabled workers, and low-income families should prepare for modest increases but not expect a huge jump in benefits.

The 2026 Social Security COLA is projected at 2.7%, slightly higher than earlier forecasts. While this will provide some relief to millions of Americans, it may still fall short of covering rising expenses like healthcare, food, and housing.

The ongoing debate about whether the CPI-W formula truly reflects seniors’ needs highlights a bigger issue: ensuring Social Security remains strong and fair for current and future generations.

For now, seniors should watch the official October 2025 announcement and plan their budgets accordingly.

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